What’s happening to fertility rate on Long Island?

The decline in U.S. birthrate is a popular these past few weeks, and it’s no wonder why – a declining birthrate can have rippling effects on the future of the country.

Let’s start by looking at the overall fertility rate of Long Island compared to New York State and the U.S.

Fertility rate vs birthrate

Fertility rates are calculated as the number of births divided by the number of females aged between 15 – 50.

Whereas birthrates are calculated as the number of births divided by the total population.

The chart paints a fascinating picture – while fertility rates for New York State and the U.S. have both declined since 2010, Long Island’s has actually increased slightly.

But if we compare total births in 2019 with 2010, the picture changes a little.

Births 2010 2019 % change
US 4,168,720 3,877,882 -6.98%
NYS 247,003 217,713 -11.86%
LI 34,011 31,652 -6.94%

Even though the fertility rate has increased since 2010, the overall number of births on Long Island has decreased since 2010.

It turns out, the decrease of women ages 15-50 on Long Island has outpaced both the state and national demographic changes.

Women 15 – 50 years old 2010 2019 % change
US 76,352,003 76,879,571 +0.69%
NYS 4,953,728 4,630,870 -6.52%
LI 679,987 624,545 -8.15%

Even though Long Island’s fertility rate may initially imply a growing population, a closer look reveals that it’s offset by the drop in female population.